Imagine watching a movie that paints your city in the darkest possible light, especially right before a crucial election. That's precisely what's happening in Minneapolis with the release of 'A Precarious State,' a new documentary that's stirring up controversy and raising serious questions about the city's future. But here's the kicker: this film, which focuses on crime, education, and political ideologies, was paid for by undisclosed sources to be broadcast across the state. Is it a genuine attempt to inform the public, or a politically motivated hit piece? Let's dive into the details and you can decide for yourself.
According to a report by the Minnesota Star Tribune on October 13, 2025, 'A Precarious State' is the brainchild of Rick Kupchella, a former KARE-11 news anchor. The documentary aims a critical lens at Minneapolis, particularly focusing on several City Council members and their stances on key issues like taxes, commercial real estate, migration, and the overall business climate. Its release, just a month before a city election that could dramatically shift the balance of power in Minneapolis City Hall, is raising eyebrows.
Billed as a 'public education campaign,' the film has already garnered significant attention, racking up around 300,000 views on YouTube and airing on ABC affiliates statewide as a paid advertisement. This raises a critical question: who's footing the bill, and what's their agenda? When asked directly by the Star Tribune if the film's release was timed to influence the upcoming city elections, Kupchella denied it. However, he also stated it was crucial to release the film while its content remained relevant. This statement alone could spark differing opinions. Do you think the timing is purely coincidental, or is there more to the story?
Interestingly, the documentary conspicuously avoids any mention of Mayor Jacob Frey, who is currently vying for a third term against several challengers. Adding another layer of complexity, one woman who appeared in the film told the Star Tribune she agreed to participate after being led to believe the documentary would portray Frey in a positive light.
Kupchella has remained tight-lipped about the film's financial backers, only revealing to the Forum of Fargo-Moorhead that it was produced with the support of 'business and community leaders.' He explained that these donors are hesitant to publicly come forward due to the current highly charged political atmosphere. 'I think it’s a very important story that we uncovered here,' Kupchella stated in an interview. But here's where it gets controversial: Could the anonymity of the donors be a red flag, suggesting a hidden agenda?
The film's narrative revolves around several key themes:
Crime Statistics and Police Funding: The documentary repeatedly shows a graphic video of a 2024 gun battle, using it to illustrate claims that Minneapolis is controlled by gangs and that 'open warfare' has become the 'new normal.' To support these claims, the film highlights increases in homicides, motor vehicle theft, and vandalism since 2019. And this is the part most people miss... the film conveniently omits data showing a 19% decrease in burglaries during the same period. While it's undeniable that Minneapolis experienced a surge in crime following the pandemic, mirroring trends in other cities, and that some crime categories remain higher than pre-pandemic levels, police have made significant strides in certain areas. For example, motor vehicle thefts are down since 2023, and carjackings have decreased sharply since their peak in 2022.
Kupchella defended his selective use of crime statistics, arguing that comparing current figures to those from a time when the 'city was on fire' is misleading. He also stated that he focused on serious crimes and those that could lead to further criminal activity, justifying his decision to exclude burglary rates. The film also alleges that the City Council is actively trying to cut the police budget. While the council did reduce the budget in 2021, it has since approved a series of increases, bringing the total from $170 million four years ago to $234 million today.
Democratic Socialists and City Politics: A central argument in 'A Precarious State' is that Minneapolis is being poorly governed by politicians aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). City Council Member Robin Wonsley is specifically portrayed as the leader of the council's progressive wing and someone with radical ideologies. 'She doesn’t believe in capitalism; she wants the government to own it all,' claims Carol Becker, a writer for the Minneapolis Times website and a frequent critic of the city's progressive movement. But does portraying Wonsley as the leader of the DSA-aligned bloc accurately reflect the power dynamics within the City Council? Some observers might argue that City Council Vice President Aisha Chughtai, who also chairs the Budget Committee, wields more influence.
Wonsley herself was not interviewed for the documentary, nor were any of her supporters. Kupchella stated that he reviewed her campaign website but did not include any summaries of its content in the film. Wonsley initially told the Star Tribune that Kupchella never requested an interview, while Kupchella claimed that he did. Wonsley later clarified that she received an email from Kupchella stating he was working on a 'public education campaign' to understand the DSA's rise and referred him to the Twin Cities DSA, believing they were better equipped to assist him. 'At no point was it indicated that the project involved a documentary or focused on policies at City Hall,' Wonsley said.
Instead of focusing on Wonsley's specific policies, Kupchella chose to highlight a political platform found on the website of the national Democratic Socialists of America, which advocates for freeing all incarcerated people, abolishing prisons, ending all misdemeanor offenses, and defunding prosecutors. Wonsley dismissed some of the claims attributed to her as 'comical,' questioning what incarcerated individuals she had supposedly freed. City Council Member Jason Chavez emphasized that the DSA is not a national political party but a movement that prioritizes local autonomy and democratic control. 'I have never said I’d like to fire prosecutors or free every single prisoner,' he stated. Kupchella, however, insisted that the national DSA's document was significant, referring to it as 'the mothership' and arguing that it was relevant to understanding Wonsley's political affiliations.
Student Test Scores: The documentary also examines Minnesota students' test scores, asserting that a majority of students are failing science, reading, and math. However, this is a misinterpretation of how the state assessment works. Elsa Mundt, an educational data analyst and assessment supervisor for the Stillwater Area Public Schools District, explained that the reading and math assessments are adaptive, adjusting in difficulty based on the student's performance to determine their capabilities. She emphasized that it's not a traditional test with a pass or fail grade. 'The goal [of the MCAs] is to describe what students can do,' she said. 'It’s tempting maybe to use the language of passing and failing, but it’s a little different than grading. Failing is a simplification.' Despite this explanation, Kupchella maintained his assertion that a significant percentage of Minnesota students are failing science. It's important to note that the science test results reflect new standards that schools have only recently begun teaching.
Migration and Taxes: 'A Precarious State' presents data showing people moving out of Minnesota between 2022 and 2024, claiming that this represents an unprecedented mass exodus. Former Republican state legislator Pat Garofalo attributes this migration to the state's income tax. While it's true that Minnesota has experienced a consistent pattern of more people moving out than moving in since at least 2006, state demographer Susan Brower cautions against attributing this solely to public policies or quality of life factors. She explains that people move for a variety of reasons. Minnesota's population has continued to grow due to new births and international arrivals, which offset the outflow of domestic migrants. However, the state's growth rate has slowed down due to a decline in birth rates, a trend observed across the Midwest.
Real Estate and Downtown Development: The documentary portrays a bleak picture of downtown Minneapolis, with AK Kamara, a member of the Republican National Committee, lamenting that the city is no longer what it used to be. Kupchella highlights the city's struggling commercial real estate market, citing statistics that rank it among the most distressed in the nation. While the film accurately reflects the challenges facing the commercial real estate sector, it fails to acknowledge pockets of strength in other areas. For example, the vacancy rate for the industrial sector in the Twin Cities is significantly lower than the national average, and the housing market remains strong, particularly in Minneapolis, where sale price gains have outpaced the broader metro.
The film also mentions the high cost of building homes in Minneapolis compared to neighboring states, which has contributed to a decline in housing production. Commercial real estate investor Erin Fitzgerald shared her frustration with the business environment in Minneapolis, stating that she's finding better deals in other cities due to local government incentives. She has advocated for similar tax credits in Minnesota and praised Mayor Frey for his support. However, she criticizes the City Council for being 'overtaken by the DSA.' Despite her concerns, Fitzgerald expressed mixed feelings about the documentary, stating that while it highlighted important issues, it painted an unfairly negative picture of Minneapolis and Mayor Frey.
So, what are your thoughts on 'A Precarious State'? Does it present a fair and balanced view of Minneapolis, or is it a politically motivated attempt to influence the upcoming elections? Are the concerns raised about crime, education, and political ideologies legitimate, or are they exaggerated? And perhaps most importantly, do you think the anonymity of the film's donors is a cause for concern? Share your opinions and insights in the comments below.
